By Dr Titus Divala
Yes indeed, the numbers have now taken a downward trend which is very encouraging. The number to watch closely is the positivity rate, which simply reflects how many test positive out of every 100 tested. This number was very high (above 30), but has now taken a sharp decline. It is my hope that we will keep it on that path.
HAVE WE SUCCEEDED? WHAT HAVE WE DONE RIGHT?
From the look of the trend of the daily new cases, we have had a very steep rise and are now experiencing a steep slope. This resembles a situation where the disease has had all opportunity to spread very fast and encounter most of individuals in the society to the point where it is starting to run out of individuals. So, as a society, and just like first wave, we did not manage to control disease transmission. You may have heard the term flatten the curve: a phenomenon where transmission is slowed down by people who are following prevention measures, and the trend rises slowly and then becomes flat like a plateau. This we have not managed to achieve.
ARE WE OVER THE WOODS NOW?
No, we are not there yet. Transmission is still very high, there are still many people who have not had the virus, people we need to protect from infection as much as possible so that we can close the tap of severe disease and bad outcomes. To be reasonably comfortable, we need to look out for a consistent weekly positivity rate of lower than 5%.
AND important to also realise that there are still many patients receiving hospital care now and that will only start changing after a few weeks. So at health system level, it will still take a little longer before feeling the drop in admissions, and even longer to return to bearable pressure.
SO WHAT SHOULD WE DO, WHAT NEXT?
We must love one another by doing our best not to lose any more of the people left around us. The actions to take are basic, yet invaluable, I will spell them out in three bullets:
1. Stop moving around when there is no essential reason. Stay home if you can
2. If you must leave your home, don’t do so without wearing a mask, don’t get less than 2m close to anyone, and always wash hands on entry and exit of every premise.
3. The government has been extremely casual about implementing prevention measures. If you are in government or close to the leadership, please encourage them to enforce mandatory mask wearing and banning on all non-essential gatherings.
PLEA FROM FRONTLINE HEALTH WORKERS
We are working hard for you, please do not harrass us. Instead, support us with kindness and love. What we have been experiencing on the frontline, and the long and unbearable work shifts, are painful enough.
10 Feb 2020
Dr Titus Divala
Epidemiollogist, University of Malawi College of Medicine
DATA: Many thanks to the PHIM Epidemiology/Surveillance Team for the amazing data and graphs, more reliable now with the increased testing#Share and #SpreadTheWord
