By Dr. Maxwell Phiri, Elections Expert & Political Strategist
As Malawi approaches the September 2025 presidential elections, all eyes are on former President Peter Mutharika, who is making a strong bid to reclaim power. With a fractured ruling coalition, a weakened economy, and rising discontent among voters, Mutharika and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are positioning themselves as the only viable alternative to rescue Malawi from what many see as a failing administration.
This article provides a deep analysis of the political landscape, voter sentiment, economic conditions, and strategic alliances that make Mutharika the most likely winner of the 2025 elections.
- A Country in Crisis: The Perfect Political Opportunity
The Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and its leader, President Lazarus Chakwera, came into power in 2020 with high expectations. However, nearly five years later, the country is in economic turmoil, with record-high inflation, a weakening currency, and a struggling job market. The government’s failure to deliver on its promises has created a deep sense of frustration among Malawians.
Key Issues That Have Weakened MCP’s Popularity
1. Economic Decline – Inflation has eroded purchasing power, the cost of basic goods has soared, and the Malawian Kwacha continues to lose value.
2. High Unemployment – Job creation has been slow, leaving many young Malawians hopeless and angry.
3. Corruption and Governance Concerns – The Chakwera administration has been accused of selective justice, shielding its own members while targeting opposition figures.
4. Infrastructure Stagnation – Projects that started under Mutharika have stalled, and no major new infrastructure developments have materialized.
5. Public Sector Failures – Power blackouts, water shortages, and declining public services have fueled dissatisfaction.
This widespread frustration has eroded MCP’s support base, creating an ideal political opportunity for the opposition, particularly Mutharika and the DPP.
- The Power of the DPP Machinery
Despite being in opposition for nearly five years, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has remained one of the most organized and resilient political parties in Malawi. Unlike many opposition parties that collapse after losing power, the DPP has maintained a strong grassroots network and loyal voter base, particularly in the Southern Region, which remains the largest voting bloc.
Why DPP Remains a Formidable Force
• Strong Party Structures – The DPP has well-established structures from the village level to national leadership, ensuring deep voter mobilization.
• Loyal Supporters – The party has retained its core voter base, which showed resilience in the 2020 elections, even under difficult conditions.
• Leadership Unity – After years of internal power struggles, the DPP has consolidated its leadership behind Mutharika, presenting a united front ahead of 2025.
In contrast, MCP is facing internal divisions, with factions questioning Chakwera’s leadership, further weakening its position.
- The Return of UTM: Dalitso Kabambe’s Game-Changing Move
One of the biggest developments in Malawi’s political landscape is the realignment of the United Transformation Movement (UTM). Following the tragic passing of Dr. Saulos Chilima, UTM was at a crossroads. However, the election of Dr. Dalitso Kabambe as the new party leader has transformed the political equation.
Why UTM’s Shift is Significant
• UTM has officially exited the MCP government, making it an opposition party for the first time since 2020.
• Dalitso Kabambe brings economic credibility, having served as Governor of the Reserve Bank of Malawi, which resonates with voters concerned about the economy.
• A DPP-UTM alliance is highly probable, as both parties share a common goal: removing MCP from power.
If UTM formally joins forces with the DPP, it could tilt the balance decisively in Mutharika’s favor.
- The Grand Alliance: A Winning Strategy
Coalitions have become a defining feature of Malawian politics. In 2020, the Tonse Alliance united opposition parties against Mutharika, leading to his defeat. Now, the situation has reversed, and the same strategy could work against MCP.
Key Players in the 2025 Opposition Alliance
• DPP (Peter Mutharika) – The backbone of the opposition, bringing massive support from the South and parts of the Central Region.
• UTM (Dalitso Kabambe) – A potential key ally, with influence in urban areas and among young professionals.
• AFORD (Alliance for Democracy) – Can deliver votes from the Northern Region.
• UDF (United Democratic Front) – Historically aligned with DPP and strong in parts of the Eastern Region.
• PP (People’s Party) – Joyce Banda’s party still holds some influence in key constituencies.
Why This Alliance Would Be Unstoppable
• It mirrors the 2020 Tonse Alliance strategy, which defeated Mutharika. Now, the opposition is using the same formula against MCP.
• It consolidates the opposition vote, ensuring a first-round victory instead of a run-off.
• It isolates MCP, making it difficult for Chakwera to build a counter-coalition.
If Mutharika successfully brings these parties together, his victory will be almost guaranteed.
- The Peter Mutharika Factor: Why He Remains Popular
Despite being out of office since 2020, Mutharika remains one of Malawi’s most recognizable and respected political figures. His appeal is based on three key factors:
- Experience and Stability
Mutharika served as president from 2014 to 2020, a period marked by economic stability, major infrastructure projects, and improved investor confidence. Many voters compare his administration favorably to the current government.
- Leadership Credibility
Unlike some politicians who lack executive experience, Mutharika has a proven track record of managing the economy, foreign relations, and governance.
- Nostalgia for the “Good Old Days”
Many Malawians believe that life was better under Mutharika compared to the economic hardships of the Chakwera administration. This sentiment is driving many former MCP supporters to reconsider their choices.
Final Verdict: Why Mutharika Will Win
All political indicators point to Peter Mutharika reclaiming the presidency in 2025. His victory will be driven by:
🔹 Massive voter dissatisfaction with MCP and Chakwera’s leadership
🔹 The DPP’s well-organized political machinery
🔹 The collapse of the Tonse Alliance and UTM’s shift to the opposition
🔹 The formation of a powerful opposition alliance
🔹 Mutharika’s strong leadership credentials and track record
If the opposition stays united and mobilizes effectively, Mutharika will secure a decisive first-round victory in September 2025. The battle is now about strategy, voter turnout, and coalition-building, but at this point, Mutharika is the clear frontrunner.
The stage is set for one of Malawi’s most historic elections, and if the current political momentum holds, Peter Mutharika will return to State House in 2025.
