By George Mhango
Three years ago on February 24, the world had a rude awakening call of the Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine. Malawi and many African countries still feel the pinch of its effects despite international condemnation and aid to end it
Prior to the war, Malawi used to import wheat from Ukraine because it had no capacity to produce her own and flood the market. Manufacturing companies of bread, the hotel sector and mere households have been affected as the price skyrockets anyhow.
“The price of bread and other confectioneries is not stable, I cannot afford it. It is like manufacturers have passed that extra cost on us as consumers. What we are told is that wheat is expensive as opposed to the past years when there was no war,” says Mercy Kapito, a mother of five and widowed.
Even human rights and governance expert, Undule Mwakasungula, says the war has increased Malawi’s economic burden through rising food prices and commodities.
However, he says international aid attention has also created opportunities for resilience-building efforts for Malawi and other countries.
Like Mwakasungula, Lilongwe City-based resident, Victor Nyirenda, notes that Malawi has lost a lot through ripple effects of tragic geopolitical tensions.
“While within the three years, the country has been hit hard by the impacts of extreme weather events (cyclones, droughts, floods, pest invasions), Covid-19, it is also within the very period that Malawi has faced the cost-of-living crisis manifested through skyrocketing costs of energy, fertilizers and wheat, which are strategic imports of the country,” he says.
According to him, due to the economic, trade and financial sanctions, bans or restrictions on Russia by the US and other countries, Malawi cannot import energy or fertilizers—under preferential terms—from Russia for fear of incurring secondary sanctions from the United States-US and others.
“In addition, funding for development or good governance projects has been cut, and possibly rechanneled to the war efforts in Ukraine. So, Malawi has lost much,” Nyirenda states.
For a Malawian scholar in international relations, Gray Kasunda, the war should not have been there.
He says the war has stagnated economic growth of some countries like Malawi and brought misery to many other countries that depend on imports such as fertilizer, wheat and other necessities from Ukraine.
“Prices of commodities worldwide have gone up because of this war and Malawi has been affected heavily,” he says.
African perspective of war
Reports of two Malawian youths trapped in Russian war-related industries—through Alabuga scholarships—remain talking points because Malawi authorities are tight-lipped on the matter.
Particulars of the two Malawian youths remain sketchy likewise their families. Some youths from other African countries are also said to be trapped in the system.
Malawi’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to this day has remained quiet to comment, having sent questions of what their knowledge is and updates on the situation.
But chairperson of the National Action Plan-NAP Benedicto Kondowe last year asked authorities to dialogue with Russia for the repatriation of the Malawian youths.
Malawi has good diplomatic relations with both countries. Last year, Malawi received fertiliser from Russia for distribution through the Agriculture Input Programme-AIP.
The fertilizer arrived through Mozambique, a development, which was confirmed by Minister of Agriculture, Sam Kawale in 2023, that the input is for winter cropping.
In 2024, officials from Ukraine led by the Minister of Foreign Affairs visited Malawi as part of an African tour to boost diplomatic ties. The team also visited Zambia and Madagascar.
While Malawi is yet to come out clearly on youths allegedly trapped in drone making companies through Alabuga Scholarships, two African youths were killed in the war.
Names of Tanzania’s Nemes Tarimo and Lemekani Nyirenda from Zambia—who were killed in Ukraine while fighting for Russia—a few months after the full scale invasion, remain in many minds.
For Mwakasungula, reports of Malawian youths trapped in Russian war-related industries are a concern and require urgent investigation and government intervention.
While the war might seem far, it is close to Africa because a lot of Africans are being drafted into the war, says Mavuto Kaipa, a Blantyre-based political commentator.
“Lemekani and Tarimo were serving prison sentences and were recruited from prison by the former boss of mercenary group Wagner (now called Africa Corps) to fight for Russia and gain their freedom after that.
“It was a conditional release, but sadly, they were both killed,” adds Kaipa.
How to end war
Again, human rights and governance expert, Mwakasungula, says diplomatic negotiations remain the best solution apart from intensified efforts from global and regional bodies like the United Nations (UN) to end the Russia-Ukraine War.
“We see that sanctions have not yielded the desired outcome, further straining global economies and deepening the conflict.
“It is time to prioritize diplomacy over punitive measures. We need an inclusive peace process, facilitated by neutral parties like the UN,” adds Mwakasungula.
The same view is also shared by commentator Victor Nyirenda, who thinks that only a negotiated settlement in good faith among the big powers such as the Russian Federation, United States, European powers and China—who are either directly or indirectly involved—will bring the war to an end.
For a scholar like Kasunda, the war can only end if the two sides talk and make honest concessions for mutual, win-win situations.
“I think if Putin and Zelenskyy sit down together and agree that Ukraine will not join NATO and Russia stops its expansionism agenda and return occupied territories to Ukraine, then the war will end,” says Kasunda.
Trump—who took office on January 20—has repeatedly vowed to swiftly end the Ukraine war. He has made separate phone calls to Putin and Zelenskyy, leaving Washington’s European allies alarmed that they will be cut out of any peace process.
Those fears were largely confirmed when Trump’s Ukraine envoy said Europe will not have a seat at the table, after Washington sent a questionnaire to European capitals to ask what they could contribute to security guarantees for Kyiv.
International diplomatic policy shift
Regional blocs like Southern African Development Community-SADC, Eastern African Community-EAC, Economic Community of West African States-ECOWAS, through the African Union Commission-AUC say the Russian aggression in Ukraine has created deep political rifts worldwide.
These blocs have said a couple of times that the war has reignited Cold War-era divisions, causing tensions between Russia and Western countries and between Russia and many countries in Africa.
“The war has heightened global insecurity, challenging a post-World War II order based on international laws and norms. The invasion violates the UN Charter, which prohibits the use of force against sovereign states,” Christopher Kamanga, a retired diplomat told this publication.
Kamanga states that countries around the world are reassessing their foreign policy in response. African countries, traditionally non-aligned, are under increased pressure to take sides, especially given rising Russian military activity.
But with debate continuing about what the US will say to end the war, Nyirenda says this will depend on what political calculations President Trump has as compared to former US president Joe Biden.
“The economic war of reciprocal imposition of trade tariffs or technology export transfer restrictions keeps going.
“And we are not sure if the theatre will remain in space. However, there are reports of the US shifting its focus to contain China after the war in Ukraine is resolved through a negotiated settlement,” he says.
With Russia making progress and the US seemingly looking to reduce its role and global conflict spreading, various commentators think this is an opportune moment to highlight the dangers posed by states which violate the territorial integrity of others, as well as the ongoing civilian cost of needless conflict.
